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March 25, 2013 |

Predicting genocide is, by definition, an almost impossible task due to the scarcity of early, actionable data. There’s no chi-squared test or Monte Carlo method for reliably distributing societies along a spectrum from homogeneous to homicidal, both because the extermination of entire populations has become a relatively rare occurrence (thanks to the ever-increasing internationalization of…

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Tana River field report: Continuing risks and new opportunities

March 21, 2013 |

At the end of February a small team from the Sentinel Project visited the Tana River District of eastern Kenya as part of our general election observation mission in the country. I had the privilege of serving on that team and want to outline here some of what we did, what we learned, and what…

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After the election: Cautious optimism for Kenya

March 12, 2013 |

Last week, on March 4, Kenyans turned out in record numbers to vote for a variety of candidates ranging from local council representatives to the president. Naturally, most attention – including that of the international community – was turned towards the vote for the country’s leader. As followers of Kenyan news will know, the last…

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Mission accomplished: Kenya field work summary

March 11, 2013 |

If you’ve been following the Sentinel Project’s social media updates recently, you’ll know that we just concluded our first-ever field work by sending a small team to Kenya, which was the second situation of concern (SOC) that we started monitoring. Abhishek and I returned home this past weekend and can say that the trip was…

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Kenya annual report update: “High” risk rating remains in effect

November 22, 2012 |

The Sentinel Project has updated its annual assessment on the risk of genocide in Kenya and has maintained Kenya as a situation of concern with the “High” risk rating established in 2011. Our teams of analysts have revised the original report to reflect recent developments that correspond to each of the 30 risk factors in…

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The Sentinel Project is going to Switzerland!

October 1, 2011 |

You might recall that a few weeks ago we were rallying support (and your votes) for our submission to the International Telecommunications Union conference, ITU Telecom World 2011. Well, thanks to your support I have some really exciting news to share because the voters and judges for this UN-sponsored contest seem to have liked our…

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Vote and Help Send us to ITU Telecom World 2011

September 18, 2011 |

The Sentinel Project needs your help! We recently entered a contest at ITU Telecom World 2011, which is sponsored by the United Nations to bring together telecom industry players, government heads, and digital innovators. One of our team members, Abhishek Bhatnagar, has submitted a proposal to expand our Threatwiki platform by integrating mobile phone and…

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New – Updated Report on the Risk of Genocide in Kenya

Risk Assessment - Kenya 2011 (Revised)

September 12, 2011 |

In May 2011 the Sentinel Project released a report on the risk of genocide in Kenya. We are now pleased to announce the release of a revised version of this report (click here for a PDF of the report), which better reflects the conditions in Kenya and why we have declared it to be a…

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New Situation of Concern and Report on Kenya

May 10, 2011 |

The Sentinel Project has initiated a new situation of concern (SOC) regarding the high risk of genocide in Kenya. Our research team recently applied the first phase of the early warning process by conducting a comprehensive risk assessment that took into account the set of risk factors identified as increasing the likelihood of genocide in…

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