THE PROBLEM

An estimated two hundred million people were murdered by governments during the twentieth century – many of them as victims of genocide. These calculated exterminations of ethnic, racial, and religious groups have taken the lives of Hereros, Armenians, Jews, Sinti and Roma, Cambodians, Kurds, Bosnians, Tutsis, and many others. The twenty-first century promises to be no different. Today, the effects of genocide have scarred Darfur, Sudan, where government forces killed hundreds of thousands of people since early 2003. Time and again, the international community has stood by and done nothing to protect defenseless people.

The Sentinel Project is built upon the two core concepts of prediction and prevention.

GENOCIDE IS PREDICTABLE

Genocide is never a random event. Extermination only begins after a long period of planning and preparation. Most importantly, genocides follow similar patterns of development and follow many of the same stages. Warning signs can include observable events such as the passage of restrictive or racist new laws; the formation of militias or specialized killing units; immobilization of the target group; broadcasting racist propaganda; the arrest or killing of target group leaders; and even preliminary attacks and massacres. These actions are rarely secret. The problem is that they are almost always ignored.

GENOCIDE IS PREVENTABLE

Since genocide is a long-term and deliberate process, it can be stopped before killing begins. Most past genocidal regimes have been very cautious and sensitive to both public and foreign pressure during the planning and development process. Sometimes they have even backed down from their plans. While nothing but military intervention will stop a genocide once the extermination phase has begun, there are many non-violent measures which can disrupt the genocidal process before it reaches that point.

THE SOLUTION

The Sentinel Project will provide early warning of genocide and to promote its prevention by:

EARLY WARNING

1) Comparative Risk Assessment: Determining which states have the highest potential for a genocide to take place in the future.

2) Engaged Monitoring: Deeper investigation of the conditions in at-risk states in order to determine how far the genocidal process has advanced.

PREVENTION

1) Sharing information with advocacy groups who can lobby for intervention by national governments and international organizations.

2) Engagement and empowerment of target groups in preventive measures to disrupt the genocidal process and avert their own extermination.

The Sentinel Project approach to genocide prevention is unprecedented. We cannot do this alone, which is why we are forming partnerships and building upon the expertise of others:

• Genocide scholars
• Advocacy and activist groups
• Survivor communities
• Religious Organizations
• Aid and development organizations
• Human rights organizations

This is an ambitious project, but our cause is urgent. To quote the eminent Holocaust scholar Yehuda Bauer, “The next genocide is just around the corner. We don’t have much time.”